Can smallpox reemerge? What then?
Smallpox has been eradicated, so why is there a fuss about its reemergence? Indeed, why are our military personnel vaccinated against smallpox, given the risk of vaccination and the known side effects of this somewhat dangerous vaccine? Why do we spend a great deal of money researching new vaccines for a virus that has been eradicated?
The fear is that smallpox has the possibility of reemerging. With no natural reservoirs (unlike, say, influenza which infects animals as well as humans), it is impossible for humans to become infected spontaneously. The last known sources of smallpox are the US and Russia.
However, several factors make the re-emergence of this disease possible:
- Smallpox was allegedly weaponized by the Soviet Union
- Other sources of the virus may exist besides the two known reservoirs
- The sequence of the virus is public, and future technology might allow the artificial synthesis of the virus
In 2001, prior to the 9/11 attacks, a mock covert smallpox attack exercise called “Dark Winter” was initiated. Among other things, the exercise looked at how civil liberties would be affected by an outbreak and efforts to contain it. The CDC has developed an plan for how to deal with a smallpox outbreak, from identification to implementation of vaccination (attached). The actual plan is here, and includes forms that healthcare workers would fill out.
Consider the following questions, as you comment on the risk of smallpox re-emergence and the preparedness of the CDC for such an event:
- Is the current surveillance effort sufficient?
- Is an adequate supply of vaccine available for the US population?
- Who is at particular risk from an outbreak?
- How have the media and entertainment industry affected the population’s understanding of smallpox?
- Could a smallpox outbreak be contained? By what method?
Answer one or two of the questions above yourself with sources. Alternatively, choose something else you are interested in. Make sure to put your choice in the subject line of your response.