Part 1: Scenario Synthesis
The first portion of your assessment requires you to evaluate the following four scenario frameworks by critically assessing their main ideas or constructs and synthesizing the research findings. You will evaluate the research of Day & Schoemaker (2005), Godet & Roubelat (1996), Hussain et al. (2017), and Ramirez et al. (2017) using the Scenario Synthesis Matrix (Table 1) in the Scenario Assessment Template.
The matrix is a synthesis, not a summary. A synthesis requires different main points or arguments presented by the authors from each of the scenario articles on their respective scenario frameworks. Complete the following steps:
1. Evaluate and identify the main points of each article.
2. Populate the first column of the synthesis matrix with the main points.
3. Work down the column from artide to article. How does each article relate to the main points identified? Note: some articles may not cover all of the main ideas listed. Leave the field blank if the article does not address that main point.
4. Complete the final column: your synthesis.
5. Provide an introduction to the matrix and the process steps you followed. The matrix itself will be followed by a written summation of your findings on scenario constructs and frameworks and their application.
Part 2: Scenario Framework for Pharmaceutical Industry
You are a consultant hired to facilitate a meeting of executives at a name-brand pharmaceutical industry (you choose) to conduct a decade futures look. As the consultant, conduct a review of the pharmaceutical industry.
Complete the following for this section:
- Identify which scenario framework from Part 1 you will use to facilitate the meeting and explain why you chose this one over the others.
- Identify five current state pharmaceutical industry trends or performance indicators essential to begin developing 10-year scenarios.
- Based upon the selected framework, create five trigger questions for the executive team to use in creating 10-year pharma scenarios.
Hints:
• Trigger questions are provocative prompts for creating innovative solutions to problems. “What if” is a great way of asking trigger questions that would shake up or change the industry.
• Justify your selection and include the current industry outlook based on your research. To help you in your analysis, take the time to review the Day and Schoemaker (2005) artide Scanning the Periphery, which offers valuable insights on the skill sets needed for futures thinking.
Note: You will need a minimum of three references in addition to the provided readings.
Review the Scenario Assessment Template. Your assessment should include the following headings:
- Part 1: Scenario Synthesis.
- Part 2: Scenario Framework for Pharmaceutical Industry.
Review the assessment rubric to ensure that you meet all criteria before submitting your assessment